L2 VoterMapping users can now instantly see if a registered voter in any state has moved from out-of-state, the state in which state they’ve moved from, when they moved, their party of registration in that previous state and their voting performance in even-year general, primary and local/municipal elections.
In this analysis, we dug into the California voter file updated by L2 on 7/12/21 from Secretary of State data. After scrubbing for recently deceased individuals as well as voters that have moved out of state the total California voter count stands at 21,807,390. Those new to the state total 175,574 or .0805% of the electorate. While L2’s data are extensive they are limited in that they only extend back as far as 2017 when looking at new movers to the state. For this analysis, we are going to look back starting in January 2020 just two months before COVID-19 gripped the nation and now. The total number of voters that moved to California and registered from January 1, 2020 until now is 57,005.
Below is an image from L2 VoterMapping showing households of new movers colored by party identification. Those in blue are Democrats, those red are Republicans, those gray are unaffiliated and those purple households include some combination of Republican/Democrat/independent.
Top 10 states from which out-of-state new California voters came from as of January 1, 2020:
1. New York 6,173
2. Texas: 4,830
3. Arizona: 3,765
4. Washington state: 3,672
5. Illinois: 3,053
6. Nevada: 2,964
7. Oregon: 2,832
8. Florida 2,554
9. Colorado: 2,482
10. Massachusetts: 2,099
Top 10 Counties from which out-of-state new California voters came from as of January 1, 2020:
1. Los Angeles: 13,051
2. San Diego: 7,819
3. Orange: 4,969
4. Riverside: 3,857
5. Alameda: 2,860
6. Santa Clara 2,610
7. San Francisco: 2,155
8. Sacramento 2,026
9. San Bernardino 1,759
10. Contra Costa: 1,445
As a percentage of overall voters in these counties, the big three winners were San Francisco, San Diego and Napa.
Top 10 Cities/Towns where new voters moved to from out-of-state since January 1, 2020
1. Los Angeles: 8,224
2. San Diego: 6,318
3. San Francisco: 2,155
4. Hollywood: 1009
5. San Jose: 9,67
6. Oakland: 906
7. Irvine: 873
8. Sacramento: 767
9. Burbank: 726
10. Long Beach City: 678
As a percentage of overall voters in the cities/towns the big three winners were Camp Pendleton, University N, Rancho Mirage.
The partisan breakdown below shows the party identification these voters held in their previous states. 49.3% Democrat, 34.1% nonpartisan, 14.1% Republican.
In California, a state which allows voters to register with a party the break down is below for these newly registered out-of-state individuals. Democrat 56.3% Republican 17.1% and nonpartisan 19.4%.
For all voters in the L2 national voter file L2 calculates a voting performance score for even year generals, even year primaries, even year generals and primaries combined and performance in “minor elections”. The voting performance is calculated based on a voter’s entire vote history within the state in which they previously lived in the percentages given based on their performance in those elections. The calculations below are sorted by percentage among the 57,005 new movers to California that registered to vote after January 1, 2020. It is a mixed performance score with the top two categories being 0% and 100%. The vast majority of out-of-state new movers, approximately 79%, have some form of participation in even-year general elections in their history and their previous state.
Some additional demographics on the 57,005 California voters that moved from another state starting on January 1, 2020:
Gender: 54% female // 46% male
Marital Status: 38% married or living together // 62% single or unknown
Age: 32% 30 to 39 years old // 23% 18 to 29 years old // 16% 50 to 64 years old // 15% 4049 years old // 13% 65 and over
Broad Ethnic Category: 58.7% European (Caucasian) // 11.8% Hispanic // 8.7% East and South Asian // 3.9% likely African-American
If you are a political organization or member of the media that would like to access these data please email: paul.westcott@L2-data.com