September 1, 2021

A look at the California Recall electorate more than halfway through early voting

L2 VoterMapping Heat map of turnout as of 8/31/21 from California recall election early voting electorate so far...

The California Recall of Governor Gavin Newsom is in full swing. A little more than halfway through the early recall window L2 has nearly 4 Million voters collected from every county in the state and here's what that electorate looks like as of last night's update 8/31/21 at 8:30pmPDT:

3,945,884 voters or 18.09% of Calfiornia voters have voted in the Recall election so far. Some of the key takeaways: The electorate so far in this recall effort is looking to be older, whiter, higher educated, higher income, Democrats.

Party (Dems are outpacing Republicans by both number and percentage turnout)
Dems: 2,126,382 (20.9% of total Dem electorate)
Rep: 937,072 (17.8% of total Rep electorate)
Non-Partisan: 699,413 (13.7% of total Non-Partisan electorate)

F: 51.5%
M: 47.4%

These are high-performance voters with 70%+ participating in general 85%+ of the time they have been eligible.

Age Range: Only 8% of eligible 18-29-year-olds have shown up which 31.7% of eligible 65+ have shown up.
18-29: 9.1%
30-39: 11.2%
40-49%: 12.2%
50-64%: 26.8%
65+: 40.3%

Ethnicity: Only 11.6% of eligible Hispanic voters have shown up while 22.4% eligible whites have shown up.
European/White: 55.2%
Hispanic 18.7%
East & South Asian: 9.4%
African American 3.1%

Individual Income Range: Lowest income voters below $34K per year make up only 5.5% of voters
15.3% $75K-$99K
14% $50K-$74K
13% $100K-$124K
11% $125K-$149K
8.8% $200K-$249K
8.7% $250K+

Education Level (Higher educated are overperforming while undereducated less than bach degree are heavily underperforming based on the percentage of the electorate that has shown up)
Bach Degree Likely or Extremely Likely: 22%
Grad Degree Likely or Extremely Likely 17%
HS Diploma Likely or Extremely Likely 14%
Less than HS Likely or Extremely Likely 3%

Home Owners:
53% Homeowners
26% Renters

Children(under 18 in HH):
31% Known or Modeled as Likely to Have Child
50% Modeled Not as Likely to Have Child

Veteran Voters: 4.3%

Dog Owner: 8.2%
Cat Owner: 5.4%

Gun Owners: 8.5%

FEC Contributors: 6.4%

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