September 3, 2021

UPDATE: A look at the California Recall electorate as of 9/2/2021

With Labor Day right around the corner and election day fast approaching we wanted to go back to the California recall election to see if there have been significant changes in the returns.  As of 9/2/21, 4,830,934 Californians have returned their ballots.  That is 22.15% of eligible voters have voted in the Recall election so far.  Some interesting notes that we have found through our data is that voters with occupations that have been directly affected by the pandemic specifically in the medical community seem to be returning their ballots at a higher rate than others.  Conversely, voters directly tied to the financial services community are not far behind them.

Party (Dems are outpacing Republicans by both number and percentage turnout)
Dems: 2,569,540 (25.35% of total Dem electorate)
Rep: 1,181,750 (22.54% of total Rep electorate)
Non-Partisan: 854,060 (16.7% of total Non-Partisan electorate)

F: 51.8%
M: 47.2%

On 8/31 we discussed the level of high-performance voter participation.  In yesterday’s numbers we identified a change in low propensity voter turnout.  That turnout is currently at 19.8% or roughly 957,637 votes.

Age Range: Since our last update 18-29-year-olds have ticked up slightly from 8% of eligible voters to 9.3% of eligible voters.

18-29: 9.37%
30-39: 11.4%
40-49%: 12.4%
50-64%: 27.1%
65+: 39.7%

Ethnicity:  Hispanic vote totals have begun to tick up slightly to 14.4% while 27.5% of eligible white voters have shown up.

European/White: 55.3%
Hispanic 19.0%
East & South Asian: 9.3%
African American 3.0%

Individual Income Range: Lowest income voters, those who make below $34K per year has also ticked up slightly to 7.136% of voters as of 9/2/2021.

15.6% $75K-$99K
14.3% $50K-$74K
13% $100K-$124K
11% $125K-$149K
8.5% $200K-$249K
1.5% $250K+

Education Level: Higher educated are overperforming while undereducated less than bachelor degree are heavily underperforming based on the percentage of the electorate that has returned their ballots as of 9/2/21.

Bach Degree Likely or Extremely Likely: 22.20%
Grad Degree Likely or Extremely Likely 14.5%
HS Diploma Likely or Extremely Likely 14%
Less than HS Likely or Extremely Likely 2.8%

Home Owners:
53.1% Homeowners
25.8% Renters

Children (under 18 in HH):
31.1% Known or Modeled as Likely to Have Child
50.3% Modeled Not as Likely to Have Child

Veteran Voters: 4.3%

Dog Owner: 8.38%
Cat Owner: 5.5%
Horse Owner: 1.2%

Education 0.6%
Clerical Office 1.9%
Financial Services 3.8%
Management 3.2%
Medical 4.3%
Skilled Trade 2.2%

Gun Owners: 8.5%

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