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September 11, 2021

L2 Demographic Analysis of CA Recall 9/10/2021

With only a couple days left in the recall election of Governor Gavin Newsom, L2 has the demographic breakdown of the returned ballots as of Sept 10, 2021. Californians have returned 6,854,542 ballots in this special election.  That is 31.43% of eligible voters in the state.  Some interesting items of note: Voters in the financial services industry specifically in the real estate and those in the medical services industry specifically nurses are returning their ballots at a higher rate than others. We have also found that lowest income voters, those who make below $34K per year, have grown to 7.09% of total votes. Whereas those making over $250k a year have increased their return rate to that of 8.5%.

We are also introducing a new segment to our analysis of party switchers. We will begin digging in over the final days of the recall campaign to discuss these voters and their potential impact.

Dems are outpacing Republicans by both number and percentage of turnout and Non-Partisan turnout has grown to nearly twenty percent of the overall turnout which is over one million voters as of 9/9/21.

Dems: 3,586,739 (35.38% of total Dem electorate)
Rep: 1,713,704 (32.69% of total Rep electorate)
Non-Partisan: 1,233,806 (24.25% of total Non-Partisan electorate)

F: 52.19%
M: 46.78%

Age Range:   Returns are starting to pick up across the 18-29, 30-39 & 40-49 age brackets.
18-29: 10.17%
30-39: 12.0%
40-49%: 12.83%
50-64%: 27.52%
65+: 37.26%

European/White: 54.2%
Hispanic 19.9%
East & South Asian: 9.6%
African American 3.16%

Individual Income Range: Lowest income voters, those who make below $34K per year has grown to 7.09% of total votes received so far. Whereas those making over $250k a year have increased their return rate to that of 8.4%.14.4% $50K-$74K
$1k-$14.9K: 1.6%
$15K-$24.9K 2.1%
$25K-$34.9K 3.2%
$35K-$49.9K 7%
$50K-$74.9K 14.4%
$75K-$99.9K 15.6%
$100K-$124.9K 13%
$125K-$149.9K 11%
$150K-$174.9K 6.8%
$175K-$199.9K 6.3%
$200K-$249.9K 8.4%
$250K+ 1.7%


Education Level:
Bach Degree Likely or Extremely Likely: 21.7%
Grad Degree Likely or Extremely Likely 14.0%
HS Diploma Likely or Extremely Likely 14.0%
Less than HS Likely or Extremely Likely 2.90%

Home Owners:
52.3% Homeowners
26.4% Renters

Children (under 18 in HH):
31.86% Known or Modeled as Likely to Have Child
49.64% Modeled Not as Likely to Have Child

Veteran Voters: 4.2%

Gun Owners: 8.3%

Dog Owner: 8.2%
Cat Owner: 5.5%
Horse Owner: 1.22%

Occupation Industry
Clerical Office 1.87%
Financial Services 3.68%
Management 3.13%
Medical 4.15%
Skilled Trade 2.15%
Other 2.99%

Further review of occupation of those returning their ballots thus far in the recall continues to find the following interesting trends.  Only noting those occupations with returns of over one full percentage point with one notable exception.


Real Estate 2.01%
Medical- Nurse 2.014%
Other- Retired- 1.43%
Other- Homemaker- 1.09%
Management-Upper Management- 1.24%
Party Switchers:
Switched Parties Within the last four years: 3.64% of total voters have returned their ballots as of 9/9/21

Party (Breakdown by NEW PARTY AFFILIATION)
Dems:   134,264
Rep:  95,441
Non-Partisan:  4,351

F: 52.29%
M: 47.07%

L2’s Very own Paul Westcott, EVP Discussing California Recall this past week!
NBC San Diego: https://youtu.be/GQJmyFZDAo8
CNBC: https://youtu.be/gzNTS_Eihi8

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