September 14, 2021

L2 Demographic Analysis of CA Recall- ELECTION DAY

Good morning it is Tuesday, September 14, 2021 or election day in California and we at L2 have the most up to date numbers to share ahead of today’s voting.

As of 9/13/21 7,630,841 Californians have returned their ballots. That is 34.99% of eligible voters in the state.  Some interesting items of note:

  1. Voters in the medical services industry specifically nurses have returned their ballots at a higher rate than all other occupations tracked by L2.  Voters in the financial services industry specifically real estate are .0001 behind the nurses.
  2. Lowest income voters, those who make below $34k per year, have fallen to 6.89% of the overall vote.  Whereas those making over 250k a year have increased their return rate to that of 8.5%. 
  3. Democrats continue to outpace Republicans in turnout.
  4. Non-Partisan turnout has grown to over twenty-six percent.
  5. Over 275k votes so far are from voters who have changed their party affiliation within the last four years.
  6. Californians have "Other" pets..... 

Dems have outpaced Republicans by both number and percentage of turnout and Non-Partisan turnout has grown to over twenty-six percent of the overall turnout which is well over one million voters as of 9/13/21.

Dems: 3,981,697 (39.28% of total Dem electorate)
Rep: 1,907,959 (36.4% of total Rep electorate)
Non-Partisan: 1,388,805 (26.5% of total Non-Partisan electorate)

F: 52.29%
M: 46.64%

Age Range:   Returns have picked up across the 18-29, 30-39 & 40-49 age brackets.
18-29: 10.57%
30-39: 12.42%
40-49%: 13.13%
50-64%: 27.58%
65+: 36.22%

European/White: 53.6%
Hispanic 20.1%
East & South Asian: 9.8%
African American 3.10%

Individual Income Range: Lowest income voters, those who make below $34K per year has fallen to 6.89% of total votes received so far. Whereas those making over $250k a year have increased their return rate to that of 8.6%.

14.3% $50K-$74K
15.5% $75K-$99K
12.9% $100K-$124K
11.1% $125K-$149K
8.6% $200K-$249K
8.6% $250K+

Education Level:
Bach Degree Likely or Extremely Likely: 21.7%
Grad Degree Likely or Extremely Likely 13.8%
HS Diploma Likely or Extremely Likely 13.8%
Less than HS Likely or Extremely Likely 2.90%

Home Owners:
51.8% Homeowners
26.6% Renters

Children (under 18 in HH):
32.09% Known or Modeled as Likely to Have Child
48.69% Modeled Not as Likely to Have Child

Veteran Voters: 3.9%

Gun Owners
: 7.9%

Dog Owner: 7.9 %
Cat Owner: 5.1 %
Horse Owner: 1.1%
“Other” Pet: 11.0%

Occupation Industry
Clerical Office 1.82%
Financial Services 3.62%
Management 3.04%
Medical 4.09%
Skilled Trade 2.11%
Other 2.87%

Further review of occupation of those voters returning their ballots thus far in the recall continues to find the following interesting trends.  With this one item worth noting…. the medical community as a whole seems to be active this cycle.

Real Estate 1.97%
Medical- Nurse 1.98%
Other- Retired- 1.35%
Other- Homemaker- 1.06%
Management-Upper Management- 1.21%
Other-Homemaker- 1.10%

Party Switchers:
Switched Parties Within the last four years: 3.60% of total voters have returned their ballots as of 9/14/21
Party (Breakdown by NEW PARTY AFFILIATION)
Dems:  154,363
Rep:  112,737
Non-Partisan :  5,093

F: 52.49%
M: 46.85%



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