With the final Gubernatorial debate happening last night in the Commonwealth of Virginia and voting having started on September 17th we at L2 decided to take a look at the Virginia returns.  As of Tuesday, September 28, 2021 113,605 Virginians have voted and that is 2% of eligible voters in the Commonwealth. We are certainly not seeing high turnout numbers at this point and we are off of the last gubernatorial turnout.

Since this is a blog about the Commonwealth of Virginia, we would be remiss if we didn’t look at some of the counties and cities that flipped in the 2020 Presidential cycle. So, in the Red to Blue section, we will take a deeper look into some of those counties and cities.  Additionally, since this is Virginia and not everyone that reads this blog is a Virginia voter or experienced in the Virginia voter file.  We need to point out a couple items in advance.  The Commonwealth of Virginia does not have party identification by voter registration which is how we model party ID.  So, in a state like Virginia, we model party ID by primary ballot selection and L2 modeling.    

Statewide View 

Party
Likely Dems: 73,897 (2.50% of total Likely Dem electorate)
Likely Indep: 4,967 (.47% of total Likely Indep electorate)
Likely Rep:  34,741 (2.13% of total Likely Rep electorate)

Gender
F: 53.5%
M: 46.4%

Age Range:
18-29: 4.2%
30-39: 5.73%
40-49%: 7.1%
50-64%: 24.1%
65+: 58.6%

Ethnicity:  
European/White: 71.6%
Hispanic & Portuguese: 3.1%
East & South Asian: 2.4%
Likely African American: 13.5%

Individual Income Range:

Tuesday, September 28th 2020
Under $24,999            5.08%
$25,000 – $34,999 3.97%
$35,000 – $49,999 8.55%
$50,000 – $74,999 17.68%
$75,000 – $99,999 17.08%
$100,000 – $124,999 12.85%
$125,000 – $149,999 9.30%
$150,000 – $174,999 5.83%
$175,000 – $199,999 5.20%
$200,000 – $249,999 6.41%
$250,000 + 6.41%

 

Education Level:
Bach Degree Likely or Extremely Likely: 23.2%
Grad Degree Likely or Extremely Likely: 19.3%
Some College Likely or Extremely Likely: 11.3%
HS Diploma Likely or Extremely Likely: 17.9%
Less than HS Likely or Extremely Likely: 2.5%

Home Owners:
Likely Homeowners:  66.4%
Likely Renters:  13.5%

Children (under 18 in HH):
Known or Modeled as Likely to Have Child:  27.09%
Modeled Not as Likely to Have Child:  59.0%

Veteran Voters: 6.9%

Gun Owners: 20.2%

Pets:
Dog Owner: 14.8%
Cat Owner: 9.06%

Occupation Industry
**We only note occupations when the percentage moves over one full percentage point**

Financial-Real Estate/General: 1.91%
Management- Upper: 2.3%
Manufacturing – Skilled: 1.39%
Medical – Nurse: 2.76%
Office Assistant – Sales Clerk: 1.14%
Other – Homemaker: 2.13%
Other – Retired: 4.18%

Likely Union Member 5.99%

Red to Blue County/City Deep Dive
In 2020 there were a handful of counties and cities in Virginia that flipped from historically Republican to Democrat. Turnout is LOW so far! We will be looking at the following counties/cities up to election day.

Turnout in specific County/City as of 9/28/20 
Henrico County:  2.12%
Loudoun County: 1.29%
Prince William County: 2.40%
Fairfax County: 1.24%
City of Chesapeake: 2.06%
City of Virginia Beach: 1.62%

Highlight Henrico & Virginia Beach
Henrico County
Likely Dem:  2.47%
Likely Indep: 0.41%
Likely Rep: 2.37%

City of Virginia Beach
Likely Dem: 2.16%
Likely Indep: 0.31%
Likely Rep: 1.69%