It is Monday, October 4th and we are taking a look at the current state of returns in the Commonwealth of Virginia. As of 10/3/21 189,267 Virginians have voted and that is 3.36% of eligible voters in the Commonwealth. A couple of quick notes, turnout has picked up, has it picked up enough for Democrats to hold the Governor’s mansion? In the Red to Blue Flip section below things are getting tight in Prince William County & The City of Chesapeake. Is this a trend or a blip we will keep watching.
The Commonwealth of Virginia does not have party identification by voter registration in the voter file. So, in a state like Virginia, L2 models party ID by primary ballot selection and L2 modeling. If you have questions regarding this, please feel free to send us an email or a tweet.
Statewide
Party
Likely Dems: 124,866 (4.23% of total Likely Dem electorate)
Likely Indep: 8,805 (.84% of total Likely Indep electorate)
Likely Rep: 55,596 (3.41% of total Likely Rep electorate)
Gender
F: 53.9%
M: 46.0%
Age Range:
18-29: 4.48%
30-39: 6.13%
40-49%: 7.57%
50-64%: 24.4%
65+: 57.3%
Broad Ethnic Groupings:
European: 70.8%
Hispanic & Portuguese: 3.2%
East & South Asian: 3.0%
Likely African American: 13.2%
Individual Income Range:
| Sunday, October 3rd | |
| Under $24,999 | 4.9% |
| $25,000 – $34,999 | 3.89% |
| $35,000 – $49,999 | 8.24% |
| $50,000 – $74,999 | 17.00% |
| $75,000 – $99,999 | 16.51% |
| $100,000 – $124,999 | 12.76% |
| $125,000 – $149,999 | 9.52% |
| $150,000 – $174,999 | 6.21% |
| $175,000 – $199,999 | 5.64% |
| $200,000 – $249,999 | 6.93% |
| $250,000 + | 6.80% |
Education Level:
Bach Degree Likely or Extremely Likely: 23.3%
Grad Degree Likely or Extremely Likely: 19.7%
Some College Likely or Extremely Likely: 11.2%
HS Diploma Likely or Extremely Likely: 17.5%
Less than HS Likely or Extremely Likely: 2.4%
Home Owners:
Likely Homeowners: 66.6%
Likely Renters: 13.7%
Children (under 18 in HH):
Known or Modeled as Likely to Have Child: 27.73%
Modeled Not as Likely to Have Child: 58.4%
Veteran Voters: 6.7%
Gun Owners: 20.0%
Pets:
Dog Owner: 14.4%
Cat Owner: 8.79%
Occupation Industry
**We only note occupations when the percentage moves over one point**
Financial-Real Estate/General 1.85%
Management- Upper 2.36%
Manufacturing – Skilled 1.35%
Medical – Nurse 2.74%
Office Assistant – Sales Clerk 1.12%
Other – Homemaker 2.13%
Other – Retired 3.99%
Likely Union Member 5.85%
Red to Blue County/City Deep Dive
Turnout in specific County/City as of 10/3/21
Henrico County: 3.65%
Loudoun County: 2.79%
Prince William County: 3.90%
Fairfax County: 2.92%
City of Chesapeake: 3.74%
City of Virginia Beach: 2.52%
Highlight Chesapeake, Prince William & Fairfax County
City of Chesapeake
Likely Dem: 4.58%
Likely Indep: 0.83%
Likely Rep: 4.17%
Prince William County
Likely Dem: 4.61%
Likely Indep: 1.06%
Likely Rep: 4.36%
Fairfax County
Likely Dem: 3.55%
Likely Indep: 0.80%
Likely Rep: 2.45%
