It is Thursday, October 7th and we are taking a look at the current state of returns in the Commonwealth of Virginia.  As of 10/6/21 231,945 Virginians have voted and that is 4.12% of eligible voters in the Commonwealth. A couple of quick notes, turnout has picked up but notably in three of the six red to blue 2020 flip  county/cities in Virginia. We have done a deeper dive into one of the counties this morning and we will look deeper into one of the cities this afternoon.

The Commonwealth of Virginia does not have party identification by voter registration in the voter file.  So, in a state like Virginia, L2 models party ID by primary ballot selection and L2 modeling. If you have questions regarding this, please feel free to send us an email, a tweet.

Statewide
Party
Likely Dems: 153,261 (5.19% of total Likely Dem electorate)
Likely Indep:  10,893 (1.04% of total Likely Indep electorate)
Likely Rep:  67,791 (4.16% of total Likely Rep electorate)

Gender
F: 54.2%
M: 45.7%

Age Range:
18-29: 4.65%
30-39: 6.22%
40-49%: 7.59%
50-64%: 24.4%
65+: 57.0%

Broad Ethnic Groupings:  
European: 70.5%
Hispanic & Portuguese: 3.25%
East & South Asian: 3.1%
Likely African American: 13.3%

Individual Income Range:

Sunday, October 3rd  
Under $24,999 4.86%
$25,000 – $34,999 3.93%
$35,000 – $49,999 8.20%
$50,000 – $74,999 16.8%
$75,000 – $99,999 16.4%
$100,000 – $124,999 12.6%
$125,000 – $149,999 9.59%
$150,000 – $174,999 6.23%
$175,000 – $199,999 5.68%
$200,000 – $249,999 7.06%
$250,000 + 6.95%


Education Level:
Bach Degree Likely or Extremely Likely: 23.3%
Grad Degree Likely or Extremely Likely: 19.7%
Some College Likely or Extremely Likely: 11.2%
HS Diploma Likely or Extremely Likely: 17.5%
Less than HS Likely or Extremely Likely: 2.4%

Home Owners:
Likely Homeowners: 66.5%
Likely Renters:  13.7%

Children (under 18 in HH):
Known or Modeled as Likely to Have Child:  27.78%
Modeled Not as Likely to Have Child:  58.4%

Veteran Voters: 6.67%

Gun Owners: 19.9%

Likely Union Member: 5.81%

Pets:
Dog Owner: 14.3%
Cat Owner: 8.7%
Horse Owner: 1.6%

Occupation Industry
**We only note occupations when the percentage moves over one point**
Financial-Real Estate/General 1.84%
Management- Upper 2.35%
Manufacturing – Skilled 1.34%
Medical – Nurse 2.72%
Office Assistant – Sales Clerk 1.11%
Other – Homemaker 2.09%
Other – Retired 3.93%

Red to Blue County/City Deep Dive
Turnout in specific County/City as of 10/6/21 
Henrico County:  4.62%
Loudoun County: 3.33%
Prince William County: 4.56%
Fairfax County: 3.89%
City of Chesapeake: 4.86%
City of Virginia Beach: 3.05%

Deep Dive Henrico County 
Henrico County
Likely Dem: 5.46%
Likely Indep: 1.0%
Likely Rep: 4.89%

Gender:
F: 58.0%
M: 41.9%

Veteran: 4.6%

Age Range:
18-29: 4.1%
30-39: 5.8%
40-49%: 7.7%
50-64%: 24.3%
65+: 57.9%

Broad Ethnic Groupings:  
European: 58.7%
Hispanic & Portuguese: 2.1%
East & South Asian: 3.0%
Likely African American: 27.6%

Individual Income Range:

Sunday, October 3rd  
Under $24,999 4.75%
$25,000 – $34,999 4.40%
$35,000 – $49,999 9.64%
$50,000 – $74,999 19.7%
$75,000 – $99,999 18.1%
$100,000 – $124,999 14.6%
$125,000 – $149,999 8.3%
$150,000 – $174,999 4.4%
$175,000 – $199,999 4.0%
$200,000 – $249,999 4.8%
$250,000 + 6.2%

Education Level:
Bach Degree Likely or Extremely Likely: 25.3%
Grad Degree Likely or Extremely Likely: 20.2%
Some College Likely or Extremely Likely: 11.2%
HS Diploma Likely or Extremely Likely: 17.0%
Less than HS Likely or Extremely Likely: 1.9%

Home Owners:
Likely Homeowners: 68.8%
Likely Renters:  15.0%

Children (under 18 in HH):
Known or Modeled as Likely to Have Child:  28.4%
Modeled Not as Likely to Have Child:  58.9%

Gun Owners: 13%

Likely Union Member: 5.57%

Occupation Industry
**We only note occupations when the percentage moves over one point**
Financial-Real Estate/General 2.13%
Management- Middle 1.25%
Management – Upper- 2.35%
Manufacturing – Skilled 1.18%
Medical – Nurse 2.97%
Office Assistant – Sales Clerk 1.44%
Other – Homemaker 1.42%
Other – Retired 3.84%