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October 15, 2021

Demographic Analysis of Virginia 10/13/21

It is Friday, October 15th, 2021 and we are 19 days from election day in the Commonwealth of Virginia.  As of 10/13/2021, 326,781 Virginians have voted and that is 5.81% of eligible voters in the Commonwealth. Although likely Democratic turnout is certainly higher, by double than likely Republicans in raw vote the total overall vote is still very low.  We have seen growth in the 18-29 & 30 – 39 Age Ranges but all other numbers have held. However, we have found that Virginia early voters support their community by donating financially as well and it shows in the numbers see below for the breakdown. The Commonwealth of Virginia does not have party identification by voter registration in the voter file.  So, in a state like Virginia, L2 models party ID by primary ballot selection and L2 modeling. If you have questions regarding this, please feel free to send us an email, a tweet.

Statewide Party
Likely Dems: 212,582 (7.20% of total Likely Dem electorate)
Likely Indep:  16,080 (1.54% of total Likely Indep electorate)
Likely Rep:  98,119 (6.02% of total Likely Rep electorate)

Gender
F: 54.3%
M: 45.6%

Veteran Voters: 6.55% 

Likely Union Member: 5.78%

Age Range:
18-29: 5.19%
30-39: 6.26%
40-49%: 7.79%
50-64%: 25.20%
65+: 55.5%

Broad Ethnic Groupings:  
European: 70.6%
Hispanic & Portuguese: 3.21%
East & South Asian: 3.13%
Likely African American: 13.3%

Individual Income Range:

Sunday, October 3rd  
Under $24,999 4.8%
$25,000 - $34,999 3.89%
$35,000 - $49,999 8.17%
$50,000 - $74,999 16.79%
$75,000 - $99,999 16.3%
$100,000 - $124,999 12.5%
$125,000 - $149,999 9.74%
$150,000 - $174,999 6.20%
$175,000 - $199,999 5.76%
$200,000 - $249,999 7.18%
$250,000 + 6.99%

 Education Level:
Bach Degree Likely or Extremely Likely: 23.3%
Grad Degree Likely or Extremely Likely: 19.5%
Some College Likely or Extremely Likely: 11.3%
HS Diploma Likely or Extremely Likely: 17.5%
Less than HS Likely or Extremely Likely: 2.40%

Home Owners:
Likely Homeowners: 66.7%
Likely Renters:  13.6%

Children (under 18 in HH):
Known or Modeled as Likely to Have Child:  28.1%
Modeled Not as Likely to Have Child:  58.1%

Gun Owners: 19.6%

Pets:
Dog Owner: 14.3%
Cat Owner: 8.58%
Horse Owner: 1.65%

Occupation
**We only note occupations when the percentage moves over one point**

  1. Other – Retired 3.83%
  2. Medical – Nurse 2.71%
  3. Management- Upper 2.33%
  4. Other – Homemaker 2.09%
  5. Financial-Real Estate/General 1.82%
  6. Manufacturing – Skilled 1.33%
  7. Office Assistant – Sales Clerk 1.10%

Virginia early voters support their community by donating financially as well and it shows in the numbers.  Of those Virginians who have already voted we have found the following.

Donates to Charity in the Home: 54.1%
Donates to Environmental Causes: 6.8%
Donates to Local Community: 27.3%
Donates to Liberal Causes: 0.32%
Donates to Conservative Causes: 0.43%
Donates to Wildlife Preservation: 8.32%
Donates to Veteran Causes: 5.61%
Donates to Healthcare: 17.4%
Donates to Children’s Causes: 6.54%
Donates to Animal Welfare: 5.77%

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