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October 25, 2021

Demographic Analysis of Virginia 10/24/21

It is Monday, October 25, 2021 and we are 8 days from election day in the Commonwealth of Virginia.  As of Sunday, October 24, 2021 628,447 Virginians have voted early or absentee and that is 11.18% of eligible voters in the Commonwealth.   Likely Democrats continue to be ahead in the overall vote total statewide by roughly 150k+ vote margin.  We should continue to see some changes coming from NOVA specifically Fairfax County which has been performing well for the Democratic Party but with Hampton Roads underperforming and Likely Independents being over 3% statewide this is going to be a nail bitter till the end.

Going into election day it is all about momentum who has it is the question?

Red to Blue Counties & Cities continue to be a place to watch with control of the Virginia House of Delegates on the line. Throughout the week we will be digging into the most vulnerable members of the House of Delegates.

The Commonwealth of Virginia does not have party identification by voter registration in the voter file.  So, in a state like Virginia, L2 models party ID by primary ballot selection and L2 modeling. If you have questions regarding this, please feel free to send us an email, a tweet.

Statewide Party
Likely Dems: 393,612 (13.34% of total Likely Dem electorate)
Likely Indep:  34,114 (3.27% of total Likely Indep electorate)
Likely Rep:  200,721 (12.32% of total Likely Rep electorate)

Gender
F: 54.8%
M: 45.1%

Veteran Voters: 6.25%

Likely Union Member: 5.70%

Age Range:
18-29: 5.40%
30-39: 6.67%
40-49%: 8.95%
50-64%: 27.98%
65+: 50.95%

Broad Ethnic Groupings:  
European: 70.9%
Hispanic & Portuguese: 3.35%
East & South Asian: 3.22%
Likely African American: 12.9%

Individual Income Range:

Sunday, October 24th  
Under $24,999 4.51%
$25,000 - $34,999 3.68%
$35,000 - $49,999 7.63%
$50,000 - $74,999 16.2%
$75,000 - $99,999 16.0%
$100,000 - $124,999 12.5%
$125,000 - $149,999 10.2%
$150,000 - $174,999 6.27%
$175,000 - $199,999 6.20%
$200,000 - $249,999 7.75%
$250,000 + 7.47%


Education Level:
Bach Degree Likely or Extremely Likely: 23.7%
Grad Degree Likely or Extremely Likely: 19.0%
Some College Likely or Extremely Likely: 11.4%
HS Diploma Likely or Extremely Likely: 17.4%
Less than HS Likely or Extremely Likely: 2.3%

Home Owners:
Likely Homeowners: 67.1%
Likely Renters:  13.5%

Children (under 18 in HH):
Known or Modeled as Likely to Have Child:  29.8%
Modeled Not as Likely to Have Child:  56.8%

Gun Owners: 19.3%

Pets:
Dog Owner: 14.1%
Cat Owner: 8.36%
Horse Owner: 1.64%

Occupation
**We only note occupations when the percentage moves over one point**

  1. Other – Retired 3.35%
  2. Medical – Nurse 2.70%
  3. Management- Upper 2.27%
  4. Other – Homemaker 2.06%
  5. Financial-Real Estate/General 1.85%
  6. Manufacturing – Skilled 1.30%
  7. Office Assistant – Sales Clerk 1.10%

 

Red to Blue Watch Counties & Cities

Since we do not yet know what way Likely Independents will break the raw vote numbers in these counties are close but Likely Democrats are still up in raw vote.

Henrico County Total of Likely Voters by Party
10/24/21 Overall Total Vote  12.07%
Likely D 13.99%
Likely I 3.19%
Likely R 13.05%

 

Loudoun County Total of Likely Voters by Party
10/24/21 Overall Total Vote 10.99%
Likely D 12.72%
Likely I 3.87%
Likely R 11.47%

 

Prince William County Total of Likely Voters by Party
10/24/21 Overall Total Vote 11.75%
Likely D 13.17%
Likely I 3.74%
Likely R 14.50%

 

Fairfax County Total of Likely Voters by Party
10/24/21 Overall Total Vote 11.17%
Likely D 13.07%
Likely I 3.53%
Likely R 10.58%

 

City of Chesapeake Total of Likely Voters by Party
10/24/21 Overall Total Vote 13.13%
Likely D 15.02%
Likely I 3.48%
Likely R 16.08%

 

City of Virginia Beach Total of Likely Voters by Party
10/24/21 Overall Total Vote 9.62%
Likely D 11.46%
Likely I 2.30%
Likely R 11.59%

 

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