It is Thursday, October 28, 2021 and we are 5 days from election day in the Commonwealth of Virginia. As of Wednesday, October 27, 2021 744,452 Virginians have voted early or absentee and that is 13.2% of eligible voters in the Commonwealth. Likely Democrats continue to be ahead in the overall vote total statewide by roughly 175k+ vote margin.
Going into election day it is all about momentum who has it is the question?
Red to Blue Counties & Cities continue to be a place to watch with control of the Virginia House of Delegates on the line. Below you will find a breakdown of the five most at-risk seats. They belong to Nancy Guy, Alex Askew, Chris Hurst, Roslyn Tyler and Gwendolyn Gooditis.
The Commonwealth of Virginia does not have party identification by voter registration in the voter file. So, in a state like Virginia, L2 models party ID by primary ballot selection and L2 modeling. If you have questions regarding this, please feel free to send us an email, a tweet.
Statewide Party
Likely Dems: 461,355 (15.6% of total Likely Dem electorate)
Likely Indep: 41,874 (4.0% of total Likely Indep electorate)
Likely Rep: 241,223 (14.8% of total Likely Rep electorate)
Gender
F: 54.9%
M: 45.0%
Veteran Voters: 6.15%
Likely Union Member: 5.64%
Age Range:
18-29: 5.38%
30-39: 6.90%
40-49%: 9.42%
50-64%: 28.70%
65+: 49.56%
Broad Ethnic Groupings:
European: 70.8%
Hispanic & Portuguese: 3.39%
East & South Asian: 3.30%
Likely African American: 12.7%
Individual Income Range:
| Sunday, October 24th | |
| Under $24,999 | 4.41% |
| $25,000 – $34,999 | 3.61% |
| $35,000 – $49,999 | 7.46% |
| $50,000 – $74,999 | 16.0% |
| $75,000 – $99,999 | 15.8% |
| $100,000 – $124,999 | 12.4% |
| $125,000 – $149,999 | 10.3% |
| $150,000 – $174,999 | 6.35% |
| $175,000 – $199,999 | 6.32% |
| $200,000 – $249,999 | 7.99% |
| $250,000 + | 7.69% |
Education Level:
Bach Degree Likely or Extremely Likely: 23.7%
Grad Degree Likely or Extremely Likely: 19.7%
Some College Likely or Extremely Likely: 11.4%
HS Diploma Likely or Extremely Likely: 17.3%
Less than HS Likely or Extremely Likely: 2.28%
Home Owners:
Likely Homeowners: 67.1%
Likely Renters: 13.6%
Children (under 18 in HH):
Known or Modeled as Likely to Have Child: 30.3%
Modeled Not as Likely to Have Child: 56.3%
Gun Owners: 19.3%
Pets:
Dog Owner: 14.0%
Cat Owner: 8.25%
Horse Owner: 1.63%
Occupation
**We only note occupations when the percentage moves over one point**
- Other – Retired 3.21%
- Medical – Nurse 2.68%
- Management- Upper 2.25%
- Other – Homemaker 2.04%
- Financial-Real Estate/General 1.87%
- Manufacturing – Skilled 1.27%
- Office Assistant – Sales Clerk 1.10%
Red to Blue Watch Counties & Cities
| COUNTY/ CITY | DATE | Flipped R to B 2020 | % of Registered who have Voted |
| Henrico County | 10/28/21 | Y | 13.67% |
| Loudoun County | 10/28/21 | Y | 13.20% |
| Prince William County | 10/28/21 | Y | 13.63% |
| Fairfax County | 10/28/21 | Y | 14.28% |
| Chesapeake (City) | 10/28/21 | Y | 15.14% |
| Virginia Beach (City) | 10/28/21 | Y | 11.29% |
| Henrico County | Percentage of Likely Voters by Party |
| 10/27/21 Overall Total Vote 13.67% | |
| Likely D | 15.74% |
| Likely I | 3.69% |
| Likely R | 15.07% |
| Prince William County | Percentage of Likely Voters by Party |
| 10/27/21 Overall Total Vote 13.63% | |
| Likely D | 15.15% |
| Likely I | 4.47% |
| Likely R | 17.04% |
| Loudoun County | Percentage of Likely Voters by Party |
| 10/27/21 Overall Total Vote 13.20% | |
| Likely D | 14.99% |
| Likely I | 4.88% |
| Likely R | 14.26% |
| Fairfax County | Percentage of Likely Voters by Party |
| 10/27/21 Overall Total Vote 14.28% | |
| Likely D | 16.53% |
| Likely I | 4.58% |
| Likely R | 14.08% |
| City of Chesapeake | Percentage of Likely Voters by Party |
| 10/27/21 Overall Total Vote 15.14% | |
| Likely D | 17.08% |
| Likely I | 4.27% |
| Likely R | 18.77% |
| City of Virginia Beach | Percentage of Likely Voters by Party |
| 10/27/21 Overall Total Vote 11.29% | |
| Likely D | 13.22% |
| Likely I | 2.81% |
| Likely R | 13.95% |
Virginia House Delegates Most in Danger
| Nancy Guy #83 | Percentage of Likely Voters by Party |
| 10/27/21 Overall Total Vote 11.28% | |
| Likely D | 12.48% |
| Likely I | 3.04% |
| Likely R | 14.74% |
| BANKED POTENTIAL OF LESS THAN 750 VOTES | |
| TOSS UP | |
| Alex Askew #85 | Percentage of Likely Voters by Party |
| 10/27/21 Overall Total Vote 9.33% | |
| Likely D | 11.57% |
| Likely I | 2.15% |
| Likely R | 11.29% |
| BANKED LESS THAN 1K VOTES | |
| TOSS UP | |
| Gwendolyn Gooditis #10 | Percentage of Likely Voters by Party |
| 10/27/21 Overall Total Vote 14.60% | |
| Likely D | 17.19% |
| Likely I | 5.16% |
| Likely R | 15.32% |
| BANKED OVER 2K VOTES | |
| Chris Hurst #12 | Percentage of Likely Voters by Party |
| 10/27/21 Overall Total Vote 14.01% | |
| Likely D | 16.74% |
| Likely I | 4.35% |
| Likely R | 16.97% |
| BANKED POTENTIAL OF 1400+ VOTES | |
| Roslyn Tyler #75 | Percentage of Likely Voters by Party |
| 10/27/21 Overall Total Vote 12.02% | |
| Likely D | 13.62% |
| Likely I | 4.17% |
| Likely R | 13.12% |
| BANKED POTENTIAL OF 1400+ VOTES | |
