It is Monday, October 11th and we are taking a look at the current state of returns in the Commonwealth of Virginia. As of 10/10/2021, 286,798 Virginians have voted and that is 5.10% of eligible voters in the Commonwealth. A couple of quick notes, vote share from 18–29 year old’s has increased and that tends to favor the Democratic party. Turnout has picked up in the 40 – 49 year old’s range as well. Additionally, the percentage of nurses who have voted has continued to grow in share of the returned votes as well as retirees. Although, retirees are by far the largest share of the returned vote currently. See below for further details on industry breakdowns.
The Commonwealth of Virginia does not have party identification by voter registration in the voter file. So, in a state like Virginia, L2 models party ID by primary ballot selection and L2 modeling. If you have questions regarding this, please feel free to send us an email, a tweet.
Statewide Party
Likely Dems: 187,428 (6.35% of total Likely Dem electorate)
Likely Indep: 13,871 (1.33% of total Likely Indep electorate)
Likely Rep: 85,499 (5.24% of total Likely Rep electorate)
Gender
F: 54.3%
M: 45.6%
Veteran Voters: 6.62%
Age Range:
18-29: 4.81%
30-39: 6.21%
40-49%: 7.75%
50-64%: 25.0%
65+: 56.1%
Broad Ethnic Groupings:
European: 70.6%
Hispanic & Portuguese: 3.22%
East & South Asian: 3.10%
Likely African American: 13.4%
Individual Income Range:
| Sunday, October 3rd | |
| Under $24,999 | 4.84% |
| $25,000 – $34,999 | 3.91% |
| $35,000 – $49,999 | 8.21% |
| $50,000 – $74,999 | 16.8% |
| $75,000 – $99,999 | 16.4% |
| $100,000 – $124,999 | 12.6% |
| $125,000 – $149,999 | 9.67% |
| $150,000 – $174,999 | 6.21% |
| $175,000 – $199,999 | 5.69% |
| $200,000 – $249,999 | 7.09% |
| $250,000 + | 6.96% |
Education Level:
Bach Degree Likely or Extremely Likely: 23.4%
Grad Degree Likely or Extremely Likely: 19.8%
Some College Likely or Extremely Likely: 11.3%
HS Diploma Likely or Extremely Likely: 17.6%
Less than HS Likely or Extremely Likely: 2.42%
Home Owners:
Likely Homeowners: 66.7%
Likely Renters: 13.6%
Children (under 18 in HH):
Known or Modeled as Likely to Have Child: 27.93%
Modeled Not as Likely to Have Child: 58.3%
Gun Owners: 19.8%
Pets:
Dog Owner: 14.3%
Cat Owner: 8.6%
Horse Owner: 1.6%
Occupation Industry
**We only note industries when the percentage moves over one point**
- Other (Retiree/Homemaker) 6.59%
- Medical 4.50%
- Management 4.48%
- Financial Services 3.80%
- Clerical Officer 2.05%
- Manufacturing 1.48%
Occupation
**We only note occupations when the percentage moves over one point**
- Other – Retired 3.89%
- Medical – Nurse 2.74%
- Management- Upper 2.34%
- Other – Homemaker 2.09%
- Financial-Real Estate/General 1.83%
- Manufacturing – Skilled 1.34%
- Office Assistant – Sales Clerk 1.11%
Likely Union Member: 5.83%
Red to Blue County/City Deep Dive
Turnout in specific County/City as of 10/9/21
| Henrico County | Total of Likely Voters by Party | Loudoun County | Total of Likely Voters by Party | |
| 10/10/21 – Overall Turnout 6.07% | 10/10/21- Overall Turnout 4.18% | |||
| Likely D | 7.17% | Likely D | 5.10% | |
| Likely I | 1.41% | Likely I | 1.38% | |
| Likely R | 6.35% | Likely R | 3.83% | |
| Prince William County | Total of Likely Voters by Party | Fairfax County | Total of Likely Voters by Party | |
| 10/10/21 – Overall Turnout 5.59% | 10/10/21- Overall Turnout 4.70% | |||
| Likely D | 6.48% | Likely D | 5.72% | |
| Likely I | 1.56% | Likely I | 1.35% | |
| Likely R | 6.54% | Likely R | 3.84% | |
| City of Chesapeake | Total of Likely Voters by Party | City of Virginia Beach | Total of Likely Voters by Party | |
| 10/10/21- Overall Turnout 6.16% | 10/10/21- Overall Turnout 3.60% | |||
| Likely D | 7.33% | Likely D | 4.58% | |
| Likely I | 1.44% | Likely I | 0.73% | |
| Likely R | 7.18% | Likely R | 4.00% | |
