It is Monday, October 18th, 2021 and we are 16 days from election day in the Commonwealth of Virginia. As of 10/17/2021, 411,774 Virginians have voted early or absentee and that is 7.32% of eligible voters in the Commonwealth. Today we have taken a look at some of the red to blue flip cities & counties. We continue to see growth in the Democratic electorate overall but in Prince William County and the City of Chesapeake we are seeing Republicans by small percentages currently leading in turnout.
The Commonwealth of Virginia does not have party identification by voter registration in the voter file. So, in a state like Virginia, L2 models party ID by primary ballot selection and L2 modeling. If you have questions regarding this, please feel free to send us an email, a tweet.
Statewide Party
Likely Dems: 265,204 (8.98% of total Likely Dem electorate)
Likely Indep: 21,117 (2.02% of total Likely Indep electorate)
Likely Rep: 125,453 (7.70% of total Likely Rep electorate)
Gender
F: 54.5%
M: 45.4%
Veteran Voters: 6.44%
Likely Union Member: 5.75%
Age Range:
18-29: 5.40%
30-39: 6.42%
40-49%: 8.06%
50-64%: 25.80%
65+: 54.2%
Broad Ethnic Groupings:
European: 70.6%
Hispanic & Portuguese: 3.25%
East & South Asian: 3.15%
Likely African American: 13.3%
Individual Income Range:
| Sunday, October 3rd | |
| Under $24,999 | 4.73% |
| $25,000 – $34,999 | 3.87% |
| $35,000 – $49,999 | 8.09% |
| $50,000 – $74,999 | 16.6% |
| $75,000 – $99,999 | 16.2% |
| $100,000 – $124,999 | 12.5% |
| $125,000 – $149,999 | 9.83% |
| $150,000 – $174,999 | 6.20% |
| $175,000 – $199,999 | 5.87% |
| $200,000 – $249,999 | 7.33% |
| $250,000 + | 7.08% |
Education Level:
Bach Degree Likely or Extremely Likely: 23.3%
Grad Degree Likely or Extremely Likely: 19.3%
Some College Likely or Extremely Likely: 11.4%
HS Diploma Likely or Extremely Likely: 17.5%
Less than HS Likely or Extremely Likely: 2.39%
Home Owners:
Likely Homeowners: 66.57%
Likely Renters: 13.7%
Children (under 18 in HH):
Known or Modeled as Likely to Have Child: 28.5%
Modeled Not as Likely to Have Child: 57.7%
Gun Owners: 19.4%
Pets:
Dog Owner: 14.1%
Cat Owner: 8.48%
Horse Owner: 1.65%
Occupation
**We only note occupations when the percentage moves over one point**
- Other – Retired 3.68%
- Medical – Nurse 2.69%
- Management- Upper 2.31%
- Other – Homemaker 2.07%
- Financial-Real Estate/General 1.81%
- Manufacturing – Skilled 1.34%
- Office Assistant – Sales Clerk 1.09%
Red to Blue Watch Counties & Cities
| Henrico County | Total of Likely Voters by Party |
| 10/17/21 Overall 8.30% | |
| Likely D | 9.71% |
| Likely I | 2.07% |
| Likely R | 8.83% |
|
Loudon County |
Total of Likely Voters by Party |
| 10/17/21 Overall 6.14% | |
| Likely D | 7.41% |
| Likely I | 2.12% |
| Likely R | 5.78% |
| Prince William County | Total of Likely Voters by Party |
| 10/17/21 Overall 8.23% | |
| Likely D | 9.46% |
| Likely I | 2.41% |
| Likely R | 9.78% |
| Fairfax County | Total of Likely Voters by Party |
| 10/17/21 Overall 6.66% | |
| Likely D | 8.03% |
| Likely I | 2.06% |
| Likely R | 5.56% |
| City of Chesapeake | Total of Likely Voters by Party |
| 10/17/21 Overall 8.64% | |
| Likely D | 10.03% |
| Likely I | 2.07% |
| Likely R | 10.46% |
| City of Virginia Beach | Total of Likely Voters by Party |
| 10/17/21 Overall 5.13% | |
| Likely D | 6.41% |
| Likely I | 0.91% |
| Likely R | 5.86% |
