It is Monday evening; November 1st tomorrow is election day in the Commonwealth of Virginia. Over 1 million Virginians have voted early or absentee and that is 17.99% of eligible voters in the Commonwealth. Likely Democratscontinue to be ahead in the overall vote total statewide by roughly 200k+ vote margin. But how much of that margin holds tomorrow remains to be seen.
The Commonwealth of Virginia does not have party identification by voter registration in the voter file. So, in a state like Virginia, L2 models party ID by primary ballot selection and L2 modeling. If you have questions regarding this, please feel free to send us an email, a tweet.
Statewide Party
Likely Dems: 607,700 (20.59% of total Likely Dem electorate)
Likely Indep: 66,056 (6.34% of total Likely Indep electorate)
Likely Rep: 337,378(20.7% of total Likely Rep electorate)
Gender
F: 54.8%
M: 45.1%
Veteran Voters: 5.78%
Likely Union Member: 5.56%
Age Range:
18-29: 5.85%
30-39: 7.93%
40-49%: 11.00%
50-64%: 30.44%
65+: 44.74%
Broad Ethnic Groupings:
European: 70.75%
Hispanic & Portuguese: 3.53%
East & South Asian: 3.46%
Likely African American: 12.46%
Individual Income Range:
| Monday, November 1, 2021 | |
| Under $24,999 | 4.18% |
| $25,000 - $34,999 | 3.39% |
| $35,000 - $49,999 | 7.05% |
| $50,000 - $74,999 | 15.7% |
| $75,000 - $99,999 | 15.7% |
| $100,000 - $124,999 | 12.3% |
| $125,000 - $149,999 | 10.7% |
| $150,000 - $174,999 | 6.43% |
| $175,000 - $199,999 | 6.59% |
| $200,000 - $249,999 | 8.39% |
| $250,000 + | 7.90% |
Education Level:
Bach Degree Likely or Extremely Likely: 23.6%
Grad Degree Likely or Extremely Likely: 19.3%
Some College Likely or Extremely Likely: 11.7%
HS Diploma Likely or Extremely Likely: 17.0%
Less than HS Likely or Extremely Likely: 2.29%
Home Owners:
Likely Homeowners: 66.5%
Likely Renters: 13.8%
Children (under 18 in HH):
Known or Modeled as Likely to Have Child: 31.9%
Modeled Not as Likely to Have Child: 54.5%
Gun Owners: 18.6%
Pets:
Dog Owner: 13.6%
Cat Owner: 8.06%
Horse Owner: 1.60%
Occupation
**We only note occupations when the percentage moves over one point**
- Other – Retired 2.83%
- Medical – Nurse 2.67%
- Management- Upper 2.14%
- Other – Homemaker 2.01%
- Financial-Real Estate/General 1.83%
- Manufacturing – Skilled 1.24%
- Office Assistant – Sales Clerk 1.08%
